The Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, officially the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel (Swedish: Sveriges riksbanks pris i ekonomisk vetenskap till Alfred Nobels minne), is an economics prize administered by the Nobel Foundation.While it is not one of the original Nobel Prizes, which were established by Alfred Nobel's will in 1895, it is commonly.
Science would be much more popular if you could bet on it. (I mean, what would the NCAA basketball tournament be without betting on the brackets? How many of us would care about Gonzaga or UNLV—sorry, Bulldogs and Rebels fans—otherwise?) So until we can get Las Vegas to make book on the mass of the Higgs boson, Thomson Reuters is offering the next best thing: voting on the winners of this year's Nobel Prizes in science, which will be announced on Oct. 5 (medicine), Oct. 6 (physics), Oct. 7 (chemistry), and Oct. 12 (economics).
- A £10 bet on this Nobel Prizes result at these odds would win you £22.5. Another popular bet is Alex Navalny, at odds of 21/10. A £10 bet on this selection at these odds would win you £31. Have a look at the odds on Black Lives Matter, Jacinda Ardern, UNHCR or Greta Thunberg on our Nobel Prizes outright page and place a bet on the outcome!
- Nobel Prizes Betting Odds. View all available outright and match odds, plus get news, tips, free bets and money-back offers. All you need to bet.
- Management of Common Pool Resources. In 2009, Indiana University political science professor.
Thomson Reuters, whose ISI Web of Knowledge offers databases of, among other things, the scientists whose research has had the greatest impact on their field, has come up with its own predictions. They're based on how influential scientists have been, as measured by how often their work is cited by others. Since 2002, 15 of these 'Citation Laureates' have gone on to win Nobel Prizes. 'We choose our Citation Laureates by assessing citation counts and the number of high-impact papers they have produced while identifying discoveries or themes that may be considered worthy of recognition by the Nobel Committee,' said David Pendlebury of Thomson Reuters.
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The envelopes, please:
In medicine, Pendlebury's method spits out some fascinating names. Jack Szostak of Harvard is a pioneer in synthetic biology—basically, creating life in a test tube. For my money, he'll have to wait until he actually succeeds before he gets called to Stockholm, but if he's honored this year it will be a recognition of how far toward that godlike goal he has already come.
Nobel Memorial Prize In Economics
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Elizabeth Blackburn of UC San Francisco would be a safer choice: she has made crucial discoveries about telomeres, the caps at the ends of chromosomes that are involved in aging as well as cancer. It would be hard to honor Blackburn without also including Carol Greider of Johns Hopkins, who has also made seminal discoveries about telomeres. Greider is still in her 40s; to gauge her accomplishments, consider that the average age of a first-time NIH grantee is about 43.
Pendlebury rounds out his medicine list with cell biologist James Rothman of Yale. Rothman figured out how cells secrete the proteins they make and move those proteins around within the cell (isn't the Golgi apparatus everyone's favorite organelle?), but that work was done so long ago you have to suspect that if the mandarins at the Karolinska Institute (who choose the medicine Nobel) were going to honor Rothman, they would have done so already. That also goes for Randy Schekman of UC Berkeley, another pioneer in cellular transport whose trip to Stockholm is overdue. If you can get someone to take your bet, let me mention that, as I write, Blackburn, Greider, and Szostak are leading in the online poll Thomson Reuters is running, with 45 percent of the vote. But don't count out Fred (Rusty) Gage of the Salk Institute: he discovered that the adult human brain continues to make new neurons well into old age, a process called neurogenesis. That 1998 discovery overturned decades of neuro-dogma. He's not on the Thomson Reuters list this year but is a sentimental favorite, with 13 percent of the online votes. Choosing him would be a recognition of the revolution taking place in our understanding of the brain.
In physics, Pendlebury likes Yakir Aharonov, an emeritus professor at Tel Aviv University. Aharonov is long overdue. Back in 1959 he and the late David Bohm proposed what is now known as the Aharonov-Bohm effect, which demonstrates the spooky principle of nonlocality. This phenomenon of the quantum world basically allows an action here to affect an entity there—where here and there can be separated by the entire diameter of the known universe. Under the original terms of Nobel's will, laureates were to be chosen based on work from the previous year, but that requirement has long gone by the wayside; it is long past time for Aharonov to be recognized, and doing so would go a long way to completing the recognition due the second generation of quantum mechanics. If that happens, look for Michael Berry of the University of Bristol to share the physics award for extending the Aharonov-Bohm work.
Online voters, however, give the physics edge to Peter Zoller of the University of Innsbruck, a pioneer in quantum optics and quantum information: he's leading Aharonov-Berry by 30 percent to 19 percent as I write. He'd be a safe choice, given the technological applications emerging from quantum information theory, such as a quantum computer, but to my mind not as creative a choice as Aharonov.
No disrespect to chemistry, but for my money it's the economics prize that really bears watching this year. Several of the contenders identified by Thomson Reuters have done cutting-edge work at the frontiers of neuroscience; honoring them would be an important recognition of the emerging field of behavioral economics. The crowd favorites with 25 percent of the online votes are Ernst Fehr of the University of Zurich and Matthew Rabin of UC Berkeley, two of the leading lights in this arena. Their work has demystified everything from the effect of sin taxes and the hot-hand fallacy to the evolution of in-group favoritism (preferring people like yourself) and the origins and neural basis of altruistic punishment, in which you punish someone who cheats or otherwise breaks social norms but at some cost or risk to yourself. If they share 10 million Swedish kronor ($1.4 million), it will be an important recognition that economic science is about more than options pricing.
But I admit to a soft spot for William Nordhaus of Yale, currently winning 18 percent of the online vote in economics. His seminal work on the economics of environmental protection and environmental loss has played a key role in assessments of how to address climate change, as has the work of Martin Weitzman of Harvard. Honoring them at the same time (Dec. 10) that the nations of the world are negotiating a climate-change treaty in Copenhagen—and, by all predictions, failing miserably—would be interesting indeed.
As they used to say in Chicago, vote early and often, at science.thomsonreuters.com/nobel/vote. Who says science can't be as exciting—even lucrative?—as the Final Four?
- 2020 Nobel Prize Odds: Winners
- Why & how was Trump nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize?
- Our betting pick to win 2020 Nobel Peace Prize
In a world where more is uncertain than is certain, we’ve still got the annual Nobel Peace Prize, awarded on October 9—And we’ve got the 2020 Nobel Peace Prize odds for the winner and our betting picks.
Did you know? The Nobel Peace Prize has been awarded annually since 1901. The Swedish chemist, engineer and industrialist Alfred Nobel died in 1895 and wrote in his will that he wanted the majority of his wealth to go towards establishing the Nobel Peace Prize, but his family opposed and contested this. The first Nobel Peace Prize was awarded in 1901, and has been awarded (nearly) each year since.
2020 Nobel Peace Prize Odds via BetOnline:
Winners | |
World Health Organization | +200 |
Jacinda Adern | +350 |
Greta Thunberg | +400 |
UNHCR | +1200 |
Donald Trump | +1200 |
Black Lives Matter | +1600 |
Moon Jae-In | +1800 |
Bill Gates | +2000 |
Julian Assange | +3300 |
Vladimir Putin | +3300 |
Emmanuel Macron | +3300 |
Boris Johnson | +5000 |
Joe Biden | +5000 |
Michelle Obama | +10000 |
How do Nobel Peace Prize Nominations Work?
You might be looking at a few names on this list and wondering, “How did they get nominated?” You might find it interesting to note that nearly anyone can be nominated, as long as the nominator meets certain criteria and are considered a qualified nominator.
What makes a qualified nominator?:
- Former & current members of the Norweigian Nobel Committee
- Former advisors to the Norweigian Nobel Committee
- Members of Nobel Board of Directors, or equivalent organizations that have awarded the Nobel Peace Prize
- People who have previously won the Nobel Peace Prize
- University & emeriti professors, Associate professors, social sciences, law, philosophy, theology, and religion; university recrots and university directors (or their equivalents); directors of peace research institues and foreign policy institutes.
- International board of Women’s International League for Peace and Freedom members
- L’Institut de Droit International members
- The International Court of Justice in the Hague and The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague
- Members of national assemblies and national governments (cabinet members/ministers) of sovereign states & current heads of states
Top 5 Nobel Prize Nominees: How they stack up
World Health Organization: WHO +200
The World Health Organization (WHO) is the favorite to win the 2002 Nobel Peace Prize as the Coronavirus, or Covid-19 pandemic rages on around the world. The WHO aims to protect citizens from health emergencies & provide the world with ‘better health and well-being’, and although they’ve received criticism for some of their handling of the situation, they were responsible for the initial communication that a flu-pandemic was happening, and would likely get worse.
Jacinda Adern +350
Jacinda Adern is a strong favorite to win the 2020 Nobel Peace Prize. The New Zealand prime minister has been lauded in the press and by New Zealand citizens for how well they’ve handled the ongoing Coronavirus pandemic.
Greta Thunberg +400
Originally a strong favorite, Greta has dropped slightly since the onset of the Coronavirus pandemic. However, wild fires are ravishing many parts of Oregan and LA, bringing new attention to environmental issues—This could mean that Thunberg is a great betting choice. If you wager $100 on Thunberg and she wins, you make a $400 profit.
UNHCR +1200
The UN Refugee Agenct is a global organization that aims to save lives by protecting human rights and creating more opportunities & standards of living for refugees, forcibly displaced communities and stateless people. The UNHCR won the Nobel Prize in 1954, and was the first United Nations organization to win the prize. This year, the UNHCR is nominated for their
Donald Trump: Why & how was he nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize?
Donald Trump, 45th President and 2020 Nobel Peace Prize nominee.
Nobel Prize In Economics 2013
The question on everyone’s mind—Why was Donald Trump nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize? A few have their own ideas.
Nobel Prize Economics Pollution
One thing that’s important to note is a rule we already touched on—A nominator can be a member of a national government. In Trump’s case, he was nominated by a far-right Norwegian politician, Christian Tybring-Gjedde. Which still doesn’t answer the question, why? Well, Tybring-Gjedde credits Trump for his role in creating a relationship between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, while Magnus Jacobsson, a member of the Christian Democrats in the Swedish parliament also nominated Trump (along with Kosovo and Serbia) for “their join work for peace and economic development.” It’s worth noting that both Benito Mussolini and Joseph Stalin were nominated for the prize, and didn’t win.
However, Trump doesn’t seem to have the most sophisticated understanding of how the award works. At a North Carolina rally, Trump said, “Can you believe it? In one week they nominated me, not for one, but for two Nobel prizes.” We’re not sure which two Nobel Prizes Trump thinks he’s nominated for, but he was nominated twice for the same award.
How Nobel Peace Prize Odds have Changed & Our Pick
Originally, the Greta Thunberg was a strong favorite to win the 2020 Nobel Peace Prize, and while she’s still a strong contender, the WHO is the running to take the prize this year.
Obviously, the Coronavirus has made a mega impact on the world at large, and this has made Jacinda Adern a strong favorite for bookmakers. She’s received public praise on the world stage, and in addition to how she handled the Coronavirus, Adern is also environmentally-conscious, and implemented a zero-carbon law in the country among other ‘green’ efforts.
We wouldn’t bet on Trump, quite frankly—Even though he’s 5th in the odds from BetOnline, and four United States president’s have won the prize (Barack Obama, Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, and Jimmy Carter) we just can’t see Trump securing the prize considering how controversial some people find his communications & policies.
GO’s Picks for 2020 Nobel Peace Prize Winner
Our top pick for 2020 Nobel Peace Prize Winner odds is Jacinda Adern—Compared to other nominees (not to take away from their accomplishments) Adern has done an exceptional job of managing the coronavirus pandemic in New Zealand, and has made the environment a priority, whereas other nominees on this list have a more singular focus or reason for their nomination.
How much would you win if you wagered $50 for Adern to win the Nobel Peace Prize? What about $150?
If Adern takes home the prize:
- Wager $50, you’ll take home $175
- Wager $100, you’ll take home $350
- Wager $150, you’ll take home $525
- Wager $200, you’ll take home $700
It’s worth noting three New Zealanders (Ernest Rutherford, Maurice Wilkins and Alan MacDiarmid) have won the Nobel Prize in the past, and all three have won for their contributions to science. However, a New Zealand prime minister hasn’t won before, which would be a new title? record? for the future Nobel Prize Laureate.
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